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2023 Annual Pickies

jbiatek 10th January 2024 at 12:11am
Winner: John

🥇 Round 1 (3 points)

HostPickScore
John "A MacBook Pro will be updated" 6
Jason "The Mac mini will get an update" 6
  • Jason asserts that any Mac mini prediction is fraught with danger.
James "The Mac Pro will finally be introduced" 6
  • Even if it's an Intel Mac Pro somehow.

🥈 Round 2 (2 points)

HostPickScore
John "Apple releases Logic or Final Cut for iPad" 4
  • Running it in some sort of macOS emulator doesn't count, it has to be native to iPadOS.
Jason "There will be a bigger MacBook Air" 4
  • The name does have to include "MacBook Air".
James "Apple will introduce a mixed reality headset" 4

⚡️ Lightning Round (1 point)

HostPickScore
John "Apple will increase the free storage tier for iCloud" 0.3658333333
  • This pick was incorrect, but earned points in the tiebreaker. James' tiebreaker judgements: 0 points for passion, 1/3 point for precision, and (13% * 1/4 = 0.0325) wild card point, for 0.3658333333 points. The first d100 was 87%, but Jason spent his inspiration and it was re-rolled to 13%.
Jason "Apple classical music "thing" finally arrives" 2
James "Apple will announce their own social network based on the Mastodon protocols" 0
  • Not necessarily Mastodon itself, but using the "Mastodon protocols" (presumably ActivityPub).
John "Apple releases a new or updated accessory for the iPad" 1
  • Ungraded: John thinks it's time for a new Magic Keyboard.
  • In a year nearly devoid of any iPad news whatsoever, John ekes out a point with the introduction of a new Pencil.
Jason "An Apple executive will be present at the awarding of a trophy for a sporting championship" 0
  • With Apple getting more into sports, especially Major League Soccer, Jason thinks an Apple executive will at least be in attendance. An edge case would be, say, Tim Cook attending the Super Bowl, but that would require some proof of time and place.
James "Apple will sell their mixed reality headset to consumers by the end of the year" 0
John "Apple will introduce an update to the AirPods Max" 0
  • The repeated failure of both this pick and John's previous pick about iCloud storage prompts some discussion about the idea of a "let it ride" mechanism, or a "right of first refusal", or even some form of residuals for a wrong pick that comes true later.
Jason "Apple won’t offer the ability to sideload iOS software anywhere in the world in 2023" 1
James "Twitter will go bankrupt during 2023" 0
  • Morally bankrupt, at best, but the hosts feel that it may have just been ahead of its time.
John "Apple Arcade will add online multiplayer support for its games" 0.9525
  • This pick was incorrect, but earned points in the tiebreaker. James' tiebreaker judgements: 1/2 point for passion, 1/4 point for precision, and (81% * 1/4 = 0.0325) wild card point, for 0.9525 points.
Jason "Apple will ship a wireless keyboard that is charged via USB-C" 0.8458333333
  • This pick was incorrect, but earned points in the tiebreaker. James' tiebreaker judgements: 1/2 point for passion, 1/3 point for precision, and (5% * 1/4 = 0.0125) wild card point, for 0.8458333333 points. The first d100 was, improbably, the full 100%, but John spent his inspiration and it was re-rolled to just 5%.
James "Apple’s plans to introduce full encryption for iCloud backups will face a legal challenge from the US government" 0
John "Notes adds linking between notes" 2
Jason "Another new Apple standalone display will ship" 0
James "No new product from Apple will ship with a Lightning connector" 1
  • Doubling down on Jason's pick earlier.
  • Accessories like a Lightning to USB-C dongle don't count, but something like a keyboard or mouse would.

🏆 Scores

  1. John: 13 earned points, 5 * (3 / 7) points deducted, for a score of 10.85714285. Tiebreaker judgements added 1/3 + (13% * 1/4) and 1/2 + 1/4 + (81% * 1/4) more points, for a final score of 12.1754761904.
  2. Jason: 13 earned points, 5 * (3 / 7) points deducted, for a score of 10.85714285. Tiebreaker judgements added 1/2 + 1/3 + (5% * 1/4) more points, for a final score of 11.7029761904.
  3. James: 11 earned points, 5 * (4 / 7) points deducted, for a score of 8.142857145.

The new tiebreaking procedure was used for the first time in this game. For his wild card points, James decides to let the dice decide, a d100 percentage of the available 1/4 point wild card portion. Jason and John are also each granted one inspiration point which they can spend to force a re-roll, even on their opponent's pick.